Redfish: water temperature and season

Rising water on the banks, wind that does not mud the flat. Anglrithm scores redfish at inshore spots, on the Atlantic, in the Keys and on the southwest Gulf coast. This page sets out what that score weighs and the cited studies behind it.

Water temperature

Evidence tier Well established

No tagging study gives a surface temperature band for redfish. The score uses a working range of 62-85 °F, a fishing opinion rather than a tagged band, and its credit falls away above that range as well as below it.

Season

Best Sep to Dec, by the score's season weight.

The score's season weight by month, from the studies cited in the species profile; the outlined months are at 90% of its peak or better.

What the score weighs

  • SeasonWell establishedkeeps 100%
  • TideReal, but localkeeps 100%
  • WindSmall real effectkeeps 50%
  • Water tempWell establishedkeeps 100%
  • BarometerPopular belief, not supportedkeeps 20%Labelled not supported: it stays visible, discounted, and is never promoted.
  • SolunarPopular belief, not supportedkeeps 20%Labelled not supported: it stays visible, discounted, and is never promoted.
  • RainReal, but localkeeps 100%
  • Light windReal, but localkeeps 100%
Why each tier
  • Season: Season is the strongest single predictor in most recreational datasets, because it carries water temperature, migration and spawning together. Shaw et al. 2021, PLOS ONE 16:e0257882.
  • Tide: Tide moves fish through cuts and over structure, and the effect can be strong at a particular spot. It is not a species-wide rule: the published work finds the pattern flips by species, site and season, and one high-velocity channel study found no link to current speed at all. Trust it where you fish; do not trust it as a fact about the fish. Becker et al. 2016, Estuaries and Coasts 39:1199. Milardi et al. 2018, ECSS. Viehman & Zydlewski 2017, PLOS ONE 12:e0176405.
  • Wind: Wind has a measurable effect on fish movement, apparently through dissolved oxygen, but it is small. The larger effect in any personal log is on you: wind decides where you can fish and whether you go at all, so a wind pattern in your own data is at least as likely to be about your choices as about the fish. Milardi et al. 2019, Aquatic Ecology 53:251-263. Shaw et al. 2021, PLOS ONE 16:e0257882.
  • Water temp: Fish are ectotherms, so appetite and digestion track water temperature along a dome: rising to an optimum, then falling away again. Warmer is not simply better. Snook energy demand roughly tripled from 15 to 25 C, and they were more likely to have empty stomachs when the water ran hot. Volkoff & Ronnestad 2020, Temperature 7:307-320. White et al. 2025, Marine and Coastal Fisheries 17:vtaf031, doi:10.1093/mcfafs/vtaf031.
  • Barometer: A 30 hPa swing, which is about the biggest front of the year, is the same pressure change a fish feels by swimming down a foot. The direct feeding experiment on yellow perch found no significant influence, and thirteen years of angler data did not surface pressure trend as a meaningful predictor. It is also unidentifiable in principle from a catch log, because the barometer moves with the wind, the cloud and the temperature. VanderWeyst 2013, Bemidji State University. Shaw et al. 2021, PLOS ONE 16:e0257882.
  • Solunar: The best-powered test of solunar tables found nothing. One angler, 361 trips and 1,355 hours, seven commercial solunar services, corrected for multiple testing, with 99 percent power to detect a medium effect: no relationship between any solunar value and catch rate. Just two results were significant, and both were negative, with trips inside predicted minor windows yielding 42.5 percent fewer fish per hour. Air temperature beat every solunar prediction. Quigley, Gonzalez Murcia & Kauwe 2023, SN Applied Sciences 5:162.
  • Rain: Sun, cloud and rain change what you can see, not what the fish do. Sight fishing on the flats, and spotting fish, birds and weed offshore, depend on light getting into the water and on the glare coming off it, and how much sky and sun the surface throws back at you changes with the cloud, the wind and the height of the sun. On the flats with the sun up, light wind lets you see into the water, so for bonefish, permit, tarpon and redfish at inshore spots the score counts it in the hour's favour, fully at 4 mph or less and fading out by 7 mph; a glassy flat also shows you to the fish, so it is a local call, not a rule about the fish. This is about the angler, so trust it where you sight-fish. Local knowledge, Joe, October 6, 2026 (cloud, rain and sun) and October 14, 2026 (light wind at 4 mph or less). Santos et al. 2017, PLOS ONE 12:e0184776 (South Florida bonefishing is largely a sight-based fishery). Mobley 1999, Applied Optics 38:7442-7455. Cortese & Reimchen 2023, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 138:132-140.

Each factor's weight is multiplied by its evidence tier: well established and real but local keep all of it, a small real effect keeps half, and a popular belief that is not supported keeps a fifth. Guidance from the studies sits beside the score, never in it.

From the research programs

  • Gulf coast red drum spawn mainly September through November in nearshore waters; schools were seen from August into mid-November. FWC, 2014
  • Adult spawning schools gather in the nearshore Gulf between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, sometimes visible as surface schools. FWC, 2014
  • Red drum usually mature at 3 to 6 years, about when they outgrow the slot and leave estuaries for the offshore stock. FWC, 2014
  • Red tide may have suppressed spawning-school sightings off Charlotte Harbor in 2012. FWC, 2014
  • In a live-release tournament study, median red drum post-weigh-in mortality was about 6 percent, far below seatrout. Marine and Coastal Fisheries, 2021 (Alabama, outside South Florida)
  • Released red drum did not pile up at the release spot; about 94 percent had dispersed within eight weeks. Marine and Coastal Fisheries, 2021 (Alabama, outside South Florida)

Findings in our own words from the programs linked, area and season only; cited, not endorsed. None of these lines is in the score.

The studies

  • Juvenile redfish make longer bay moves when water drops below 16 C and salinity is falling, conditions that followed winter fronts.

    Texas (out of region) (outside South Florida) · field · full text read

    Dance & Rooker 2015

  • Lethal oxygen for half of tested fish: red drum 1.45, pompano 1.74, spotted seatrout 1.88 mg/L.

    Florida (agency synthesis) · agency · agency document

    Florida Department of Environmental Protection 2013

  • The 2010 freeze hit snook, tarpon and ladyfish hardest in Everglades waters; redfish survived better.

    Everglades National Park, Florida Bay, Flamingo · agency · agency document

    National Park Service, Everglades National Park 2010

  • Young adult redfish return to spawn in nearshore water off the estuary where they grew up.

    Tampa Bay; Charlotte Harbor · field · full text re-read Oct 16, 2026

    Walters Burnsed et al. 2020

The whole evidence library

Entries read in full text or published by an agency. Entries read only in their abstract are listed on the science page with their numbers withheld.

Where it is scored

Today's score at any of them is free with an account; every fish has a page like this one.

Display only, not for navigation. Every figure here names its source; check the NWS marine forecast and the posted rules before you leave the dock.