Bonefish: water temperature and season

Water up on the flat, and light enough to see them. Anglrithm scores bonefish at inshore spots on the Atlantic side and in the Keys. This page sets out what that score weighs and the cited studies behind it.

Water temperature

Evidence tier Well established

No tagging study gives a surface temperature band for bonefish. The score uses a working range of 72-86 °F, a fishing opinion rather than a tagged band, and its credit falls away above that range as well as below it.

Season

Best Apr to Jun, Sep to Nov, by the score's season weight.

The score's season weight by month, from the studies cited in the species profile; the outlined months are at 90% of its peak or better.

What the score weighs

  • SeasonWell establishedkeeps 100%
  • TideReal, but localkeeps 100%
  • WindSmall real effectkeeps 50%
  • SkyReal, but localkeeps 100%
  • LightReal, but localkeeps 100%
  • Water tempWell establishedkeeps 100%
  • BarometerPopular belief, not supportedkeeps 20%Labelled not supported: it stays visible, discounted, and is never promoted.
  • RainReal, but localkeeps 100%
  • Light windReal, but localkeeps 100%
Why each tier
  • Season: Season is the strongest single predictor in most recreational datasets, because it carries water temperature, migration and spawning together. Shaw et al. 2021, PLOS ONE 16:e0257882.
  • Tide: Tide moves fish through cuts and over structure, and the effect can be strong at a particular spot. It is not a species-wide rule: the published work finds the pattern flips by species, site and season, and one high-velocity channel study found no link to current speed at all. Trust it where you fish; do not trust it as a fact about the fish. Becker et al. 2016, Estuaries and Coasts 39:1199. Milardi et al. 2018, ECSS. Viehman & Zydlewski 2017, PLOS ONE 12:e0176405.
  • Wind: Wind has a measurable effect on fish movement, apparently through dissolved oxygen, but it is small. The larger effect in any personal log is on you: wind decides where you can fish and whether you go at all, so a wind pattern in your own data is at least as likely to be about your choices as about the fish. Milardi et al. 2019, Aquatic Ecology 53:251-263. Shaw et al. 2021, PLOS ONE 16:e0257882.
  • Sky: Sun, cloud and rain change what you can see, not what the fish do. Sight fishing on the flats, and spotting fish, birds and weed offshore, depend on light getting into the water and on the glare coming off it, and how much sky and sun the surface throws back at you changes with the cloud, the wind and the height of the sun. On the flats with the sun up, light wind lets you see into the water, so for bonefish, permit, tarpon and redfish at inshore spots the score counts it in the hour's favour, fully at 4 mph or less and fading out by 7 mph; a glassy flat also shows you to the fish, so it is a local call, not a rule about the fish. This is about the angler, so trust it where you sight-fish. Local knowledge, Joe, October 6, 2026 (cloud, rain and sun) and October 14, 2026 (light wind at 4 mph or less). Santos et al. 2017, PLOS ONE 12:e0184776 (South Florida bonefishing is largely a sight-based fishery). Mobley 1999, Applied Optics 38:7442-7455. Cortese & Reimchen 2023, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 138:132-140.
  • Water temp: Fish are ectotherms, so appetite and digestion track water temperature along a dome: rising to an optimum, then falling away again. Warmer is not simply better. Snook energy demand roughly tripled from 15 to 25 C, and they were more likely to have empty stomachs when the water ran hot. Volkoff & Ronnestad 2020, Temperature 7:307-320. White et al. 2025, Marine and Coastal Fisheries 17:vtaf031, doi:10.1093/mcfafs/vtaf031.
  • Barometer: A 30 hPa swing, which is about the biggest front of the year, is the same pressure change a fish feels by swimming down a foot. The direct feeding experiment on yellow perch found no significant influence, and thirteen years of angler data did not surface pressure trend as a meaningful predictor. It is also unidentifiable in principle from a catch log, because the barometer moves with the wind, the cloud and the temperature. VanderWeyst 2013, Bemidji State University. Shaw et al. 2021, PLOS ONE 16:e0257882.

Each factor's weight is multiplied by its evidence tier: well established and real but local keep all of it, a small real effect keeps half, and a popular belief that is not supported keeps a fifth. Guidance from the studies sits beside the score, never in it.

Rules and depth

Bonefish are catch and release only in Florida, all year. You may hold one briefly at the catch site to photograph, measure or weigh it, then release it there. Hook and line only.

Seasons, sizes and bag limits change: check the FWC saltwater regulations before you keep a fish.

From the research programs

  • Florida Keys bonefish spawning season runs roughly October through April, with migrations timed to full and new moons. Texas Fish & Game, 2024
  • Tagged Keys bonefish traveled 61 nm or more to nearshore staging schools, then went offshore at night and dove to about 300 to 330 ft. Texas Fish & Game, 2024
  • A suspected pre-spawning aggregation in the Lower Keys near Key West was the first documented in Florida waters, a hopeful recovery sign. Texas Fish & Game, 2024
  • A bonefish tagged on a Big Pine Key flat in September showed up over 26 nm away on the December full moon. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2020
  • In the Bahamas, schools of 500 to 3,000 bonefish staged in a sheltered bay for days, then spawned offshore at dusk after deep dives. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2016 (Bahamas, outside South Florida)
  • BTT reports that bonefish kept out of the water longer than 15 seconds died after release at a much higher rate; keep the fish wet. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, no date
  • Lab trials found even one minute of air exposure after a fight slowed bonefish recovery; keep fights short and fish wet. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2007
  • If predators are thick, move spots; consider carrying a fish in a circulating livewell to release it somewhere safer. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, no date
  • The early February 2026 cold snap killed juvenile and subadult bonefish in the Keys; warm canals serve as winter refuges, so leave fish undisturbed. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2026
  • In the 2010 freeze, Keys water stayed under 60 °F for 12 days and reached 52 °F, lethal for many tropical fish. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2026
  • Genetic work found some Keys bonefish were spawned in Belize, Mexico and southwest Cuba, linking Florida to distant source populations. Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2022

Findings in our own words from the programs linked, area and season only; cited, not endorsed. None of these lines is in the score.

The studies

  • Most bonefish stay on their home flats, recaptured within about 5 km, yet travel tens of kilometers to prespawn gatherings.

    Bahamas (out of region) (outside South Florida) · field · full text read

    Boucek et al. 2018

  • Bonefish were most active at dawn, on ebbing and low tides and in cooler 22-25 C water, and fed mostly at night.

    Bahamas (out of region) (outside South Florida) · field · full text read

    Brownscombe et al. 2014

  • Juvenile bonefish in Florida estuaries turn up mostly over bare sand or mud and sparse shoal grass.

    Indian River Lagoon; Florida estuaries · field · full text re-read Oct 16, 2026

    Lombardo et al. 2025

The whole evidence library

Entries read in full text or published by an agency. Entries read only in their abstract are listed on the science page with their numbers withheld.

Research cited: Bonefish & Tarpon Trust; FWC FWRI Fisheries-Independent Monitoring (FIM). Cited, not endorsed.

Where it is scored

Today's score at any of them is free with an account; every fish has a page like this one.

Display only, not for navigation. Every figure here names its source; check the NWS marine forecast and the posted rules before you leave the dock.