Model accuracy
The accuracy program

Receipts

Every day the Best Bets job publishes one call per fish: a place, a window and the forecast at its peak. The day after, we put that forecast beside what the NOAA station paired with it measured, and keep the error. A receipt grades the forecast, not the fishing.

Days graded
10
of 11 in the history
Receipts
73
calls with a buoy reading
Wind error
2.7 kt
mean absolute, n 70
Seas error
0.3 ft
mean absolute, n 22
History rebuilt 8 h ago.
Monthly report card the receipts added up by month

Receipts

Yesterday we called Bonefish at Biscayne Bay Flats, window Thu 9am-1pm. The buoy at Virginia Key (VAKF1) recorded 7 kt of wind against our 6 kt.

NOAA NDBC VAKF1, graded 8 h ago. The forecast is the published call at its peak hour; a receipt grades the forecast, not the fishing.

Yesterday, every fish
Receipts for 2026-10-15
Fish and placeWind, ours / buoySeas, ours / buoyPeriod, ours / buoy
Bonefish
Biscayne Bay Flats, Thu 9am-1pm
VAKF1
6 kt / 7 kt
error -1 kt
1.8 ft / no reading
not graded
4 s / no reading
not graded
Kingfish
Boynton Ledge, Thu 8am-9am
LKWF1
5 kt / 10 kt
error -5 kt
2.2 ft / no reading
not graded
5 s / no reading
not graded
Mutton Snapper
Charted structure, 8.1 nm NW of Key West Main Ship Channel, Thu 6pm-8pm
KYWF1, 42095
11 kt / 9 kt
error +2 kt
2.0 ft / 2.0 ft
error 0.0 ft
4 s / 3 s
error +1 s
Permit
Islamorada Backcountry, Thu 11am-2pm
LONF1
9 kt / 12 kt
error -3 kt
1.9 ft / no reading
not graded
4 s / no reading
not graded
Redfish
Government Cut Bridges, Thu 8am-12pm
VAKF1, 41122
5 kt / 8 kt
error -2 kt
1.6 ft / 2.0 ft
error -0.4 ft
4 s / 3 s
error +1 s
Snook
Islamorada Backcountry, Thu 5pm-8pm
LONF1
11 kt / 12 kt
error 0 kt
1.8 ft / no reading
not graded
4 s / no reading
not graded
Swordfish
Atlantic, 8 nm E of Boynton Inlet, Thu 11am-5pm
LKWF1
9 kt / 11 kt
error -2 kt
2.2 ft / no reading
not graded
5 s / no reading
not graded
Tarpon
Islamorada Backcountry, Thu 5pm-8pm
LONF1
11 kt / 12 kt
error 0 kt
1.8 ft / no reading
not graded
4 s / no reading
not graded
Yellowtail
Charted structure, 8.1 nm NW of Key West Main Ship Channel, Thu 6pm-8pm
KYWF1, 42095
11 kt / 9 kt
error +2 kt
2.0 ft / 2.0 ft
error 0.0 ft
4 s / 3 s
error +1 s

Not graded: Blackfin Tuna (no buoy within 20 nm of the place), Grouper (no buoy within 20 nm of the place), Mahi (no buoy within 20 nm of the place), Sailfish (no buoy within 20 nm of the place), Wahoo (no buoy within 20 nm of the place).

Does the score find fish?

0 of 300 trips logged with a score.

Not yet known. Until 300 trips carry a score, blanks included, we do not say whether a higher score comes with more fish. Then this card shows the catch rate in each score band with its 95% interval, whatever it turns out to be.

From the trips logged on this device. Each trip records the score at its spot over the hours it fished when it is saved.

Method
  • What was published, not a rerun. The call of record is written once, on the day, by the job that publishes Best Bets. Nothing is regraded with hindsight.
  • Like against like. Wind and seas at the peak hour are the mean of the buoy reports within half an hour of it. The forecast period is a mean period, so it is graded against the buoy's average period.
  • A nearby station, within reason. A call is paired with a wind station only within 20 nm, and seas with a wave buoy within the same distance. Past that, the receipt says no buoy rather than grading an offshore call against a pier.
  • Error is ours minus theirs. Positive means we called it higher than it was.
Observations: NOAA National Data Buoy Center, read through the Anglrithm relay. Forecast: the published call of record (weather data by Open-Meteo.com, CC BY 4.0).